In 2025, the senate modified the baseline used to calculate Reconciliation from "current law" to "current policy" status. Since the CBO projections are based on current law, we estimated the future deficit using reconcilliation relative to CBO's January 2025 baseline instead of the congressional version. We add the estimated deficit to the 2025 baseline
Because GDP = C+I+G+nX where G is Government spending, any deficit spending increases GDP, subject to whatever "crowding out" effect is created. Because of this, we add any increase in deficit spending to the GDP estimates.
By Fiscal Year, Millions of Dollars | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline estimated deficit | 1,865,251 | 1,713,258 | 1,686,942 | 1,910,776 | 1,938,268 | 2,139,721 | 2,232,786 | 2,370,582 | 2,637,299 | 2,597,250 |
New estimated deficit | 1,844,141 | 2,200,097 | 2,289,383 | 2,466,236 | 2,388,729 | 2,464,872 | 2,483,195 | 2,595,987 | 2,888,664 | 2,865,261 |
CBO Estimated GDP | 30,136,145 | 31,341,325 | 32,538,068 | 33,764,525 | 35,047,148 | 36,393,742 | 37,792,095 | 39,252,438 | 40,767,865 | 42,330,435 |
GDP with added deficit | 30,115,035 | 31,828,164 | 33,140,509 | 34,319,985 | 35,497,609 | 36,718,893 | 38,042,504 | 39,477,843 | 41,019,230 | 42,598,446 |
Debt | 31,945,025 | 34,081,017 | 35,923,801 | 38,064,965 | 39,967,291 | 42,210,383 | 44,473,347 | 46,965,371 | 49,871,056 | 52,418,168 |
Deficit as % of GDP | 6.12% | 6.91% | 6.91% | 7.19% | 6.73% | 6.71% | 6.53% | 6.58% | 7.04% | 6.73% |
Debt as % of GDP | 106.08% | 107.08% | 108.40% | 110.91% | 112.59% | 114.96% | 116.90% | 118.97% | 121.58% | 123.05% |